FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Following their recent 27-24 loss to the New York Jets, the Atlanta Falcons' playoff odds have severely diminished.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Falcons have less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason with five games remaining. It's important to note, however, that "less than a 1% chance" is not the same as no chance.
As unlikely as it may seem, there are still a few narrow paths remaining for the Falcons. Using the playoff simulator mentioned above, it's possible to outline those paths.
What needs to happen for the Falcons to win their division
- Falcons win remaining five games
- Saints defeat Buccaneers in Week 14
- Saints defeat Panthers in Week 15
- Seahawks defeat Panthers and Dolphins defeat Bucs in Week 17
- Panthers and Buccaneers split their head-to-head games in Weeks 16 and 18
By no means is there a straightforward way for Atlanta to reach the postseason, but this is as close as it gets. The best way still runs through the division, and the Falcons will need a lot of things to break right. For this possibility to even have a chance, fans in Atlanta will need to do the unthinkable: Root for the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints play the Buccaneers and Panthers in the next two weeks, and they'll need to sweep those games to give Atlanta a shot. Just as New Orleans needs to heat up, Tampa Bay and Carolina need to cool off.
The Panthers and Buccaneers can each win only one game the rest of the way, and that win needs to come at the expense of the other. If these two teams split their pair of games in Weeks 16 and 18 and lose the other matchups on their schedule, that gives Atlanta the chance to vault into first place in the final week of the season.
Of course, this all assumes Atlanta can go 5-0 down the stretch, which is no easy feat.
What needs to happen for the Falcons to earn a wild card spot
- Falcons win remaining five games
- Falcons do not win NFC South
- Seahawks, Rams or Eagles lose out
- Teams in wild card picture do not reach nine wins
The way in which Atlanta earns a wild card spot is a bit more convoluted. Various scenarios could play out, but they all essentially boil down to the same formula.
There are four teams currently in the NFC playoff picture that have at least nine wins, including the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Because the best record the Falcons could attain is 9-8, this means that the remaining teams in the wild card hunt must finish with no more than eight wins. With games against the Seahawks and Rams left on the schedule, Atlanta has the opportunity to earn the tiebreaker against those teams by virtue of head-to-head outcome.
Ultimately, what remains in the Falcons' control are the outcomes of their own games. In either scenario, they'll need to take care of business down the stretch and go a perfect 5-0. Without that happening, Atlanta's chances will drop to zero. If that happens, they'll still need plenty of help.
