FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Since their loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, the Atlanta Falcons have not converted at least 40% of their third downs in a single game. The Falcons have cracked the 30% mark twice but otherwise fallen at or below 25%. That includes a 0% conversion rate in their Week 10 overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts and, most recently, going 1-for-13 on third down against the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday.
Right now, as the Falcons prepare to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night for a Week 15 rematch, Atlanta's third-down offense ranks 31st with a 31% conversion rate.
"That's the most disappointing part of our offense, is the third down," Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. "We started off the season kind of not playing that well in the red zone; we were playing well on third down. Then, obviously, it just has not gone well in terms of third down."
It has gone well in the red zone, though. The two statistics essentially flipped from the first third of the season to the second.
The Falcons were tied for 29th with a 44.4% red-zone touchdown rate from Weeks 1-7 and improved to third with a 70% red-zone touchdown rate from Weeks 8-14.
Using the same ranges for third-down conversion rates, the Falcons were ninth from Weeks 1-7 at 42.3% but fell to 31st from Weeks 8-14 at 22.7%.
Robinson is personally unhappy with the Falcons’ third-down offense as of late because that was an area of play he specifically focused on when he was an assistant coach and quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams from 2019-23.
"So, for it not to be going down the way that you're hoping," Robinson said, "it's very frustrating."
The Rams' third-down conversion rates looked like this when Robinson was in Los Angeles:
- 15th at 39.9% in 2019
- 12th at 43.4% in 2020
- 7th at 43.9% in 2021
- 18th at 39.3% in 2022
- 8th at 42% in 2023
The Falcons hired Robinson in 2024. That year, the Falcons finished 17th with a 39.2% third-down conversion rate.
Currently in 2025, the Green Bay Packers lead the NFL with a 50.6% third-down conversion rate. On the opposite end of the spectrum – and the only team worse than the Falcons overall in this regard – are the Tennessee Titans with a 29.9% third-down conversion rate.
Atlanta hopes the offense can swing its third-down numbers back in the right direction and make its way back up that leaderboard with four games remaining on the schedule.
"Number of things that go into it," Robinson said. "First and foremost is always going to be the protection on third down. You got to make sure that you have sound protection. You got to make sure that we're IDing things properly, we're getting to the right people. I think we can be a lot cleaner in that area, just from an upfront standpoint.
"Then, a lot of it is just execution of the call based on the coverage. There's a number of different coverages that you see, so you got to have sound answers. I think we've had opportunities to execute. There's certainly times throughout the game where I say, 'I mean, that wasn't a great play call there.' So, it's always going to be a combination of everything. But there's typically answers out there. You got to find them."
