FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons have a third-down conversion problem. That much is certain. Over the course of their last four losses, they have gone 8-of-40 (20%) on third down. They have not converted more than three individual third downs since their Week 7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
"Each third down has its own story," offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said.
And that is true. No one moment is exactly alike. Down and distance changes. Field position. Play call. Defensive response. Individual execution. Time on the clock. All of it. That's why the Falcons fixing their third-down problem isn't a one-size-fits-all answer. However, trends can emerge. Commonalities come to light. They take a little time to find.
In order to do so, I went back and watched every single third-down play the Falcons have had this year — 107 plays to be precise. So far, they have converted 36 of those plays, which measures out to a 33.6% conversion rate on third down in 2025.
A major issue for the Falcons right now is something Robinson spoke about Wednesday.
"We can do a better job avoiding third-and-long," he said.
It's true. With the Falcons' run game not consistently able to pick up yards on first and second down the way it was the first month of the season, Atlanta's third-and-long looks have grown at a rapid rate since.
Of their 107 third-down appearances, 65 are plays of third-and-5-plus. What's more, 49 of those 65 are third-and-7-plus. Meaning, nearly half of the Falcons' total third-down plays are third-and-long situations. That isn't sustainable, seeing as those are lower percentage completions and plays. It puts a lot of pressure on Michael Penix Jr., a young quarterback, nine games into his first full year as an NFL starter.
The Falcons are 8-of-49 (16%) in third-and-long situations (7-plus yards).
So, that's domino No. 1 to fall: The Falcons have to put themselves in more manageable third-down situations. However, even when things have been somewhat manageable, third-down struggles remain. The Falcons have only converted three of their 16 (18%) third-and-5-or-6 plays. Of course, their third-and-short percentages are better. Most every team's are. Those are higher percentile plays in general.
The problem the Falcons are running into are in obvious passing situations on third down. And there are themes here beyond the fact the Falcons need to put themselves in these instances less. Three common threads in fact. All confirming that the Falcons' third-down woes are a unit-wide stat.
Let's get into what I feel are the three commonalities through the troubles.
- The offensive line is struggling to pick up stunts. The Falcons are relatively OK when a defense sends four, even five, most times. When they do any type of stunt, however, free runners are getting home at a noticeable rate. This issue could be twofold, and actually goes back to something Robinson said two weeks ago about the offensive line, that they were having identification issues in the run game. Well, in these third-and-long scenarios, if a defensive line incorporates a stunt in their attack, the Falcons are not picking them up. This could mean either A) the protection call isn't fitting the defensive look, or B) one or more blockers — including backs or tight ends — aren't executing their assignments.
- Speaking of Penix, his accuracy on third down does need improvement. There are many times the tape shows Penix either not throwing a good ball, or not seeing a better, cleaner option to throw to. Too many times in my notes did I write "Penix overthrew X or Y receiver." According to my charting, of the 65 third-and-5-plus plays, Penix has only connected on 11 passes for a first down (17%). (Note: He has completed more than 11 passes on third down, but only 11 have resulted in a first down.) Penix also tends to favor deeper reads on third down, which may limit his ability to take easier completions. There are many times when a third-and-long doesn't need the deep ball, but that's what Penix takes. His arm strength is why you got him, but considering those are low percentile plays (a deep ball) in a low percentile situation (third-and-long), perhaps taking the easier option is better as Penix grows into his talent. One more note on this, too: Pushing the ball downfield on third-and-long can be part of an offensive philosophy — so it's not inherently wrong, but it's risky when paired with protection issues.
- Finally, at times, the route concepts on third-and-long develop too slowly relative to the pressure, leaving Penix without a quick outlet. The Falcons are having a few protection issues at the moment, which has meant Penix doesn't have much time in a clean pocket. Too often, Penix has a defender closing in well before any of his receivers (outside of his check-down) has gotten to the top of their route. This is most notable against man coverage when the check is covered up. Penix is left waiting in a dirty pocket for receivers to turn back towards him. By that point — because of protection falling through — he has to bail.
These three things don't even touch the issues the Falcons are having with getting the play call in at times. This is vital, as the team utilizes motions frequently. They also don't touch the drops that we have seen of late, which showed up a couple of times against the Colts last Sunday.
Basically, as much as fans may not want to hear it, what the coaches are saying has been true. The issues on third down span the whole unit. Penix needs to be more accurate. Linemen need to handle protection better. The scheme may need to insert shorter routes in situations where they know a defensive front is going to pin their ears back. All of this leads to the Falcons having third-down issues. They could be easy fixes, but at 3-6, the Falcons are running out of time to fix them.
"When we get those chances," Robinson said, "no matter what the (down and distance) is on third down, we got to find a way of putting a big emphasis on it, with the pass protection and routes and just connecting on those things. Like I said, as coaches just making sure we got the right answer for the guys."
Data Disclaimer: The data used in this analysis was collected manually. Although care was taken to verify accuracy, manual data collection inherently carries the potential for human error.
