FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons had the opportunity to continue to assert themselves in the NFC playoff conversation and, ultimately, gain ground in the NFC South, but their 20-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers instead raised a few more questions.
That's what we're all about here with the Falcons Mailbag: Finding answers to those questions — as best we can, of course. Tori McElhaney shared her thoughts about some of this week's most pressing topics on Tuesday, including the absence of Divine Deablo, and I'll do the same today.
Thank you to everyone who submitted a question, and I'm sorry I couldn't get to them all. If you'd like to ask something in the future, you can do so here.
Mike S. from Calgary, Canada
"I think it's time to have an honest discussion about Penix... Looking at the QBR rankings and PFF rankings, he is outside the top 20 for both. I normally don't put a lot of stock in those rankings, but they match the eye test in watching the games, something seems to be off.
Teams are clearly going to sell out to stop Bijan and we are coming up against some high-powered offenses in the next three weeks, what do the falcons need to do to keep up when they don't have their fastball??"
Hi Mike, thanks for the question. I'd love to have an honest discussion about Penix, starting with the fact that he's made just nine starts in the NFL, essentially one half of a season. That's not trying to make excuses for him because, I agree: He hasn't looked exactly like I expected either.
Nine games are simply too small a sample size to make big-picture judgments, though. Remember, at this point last season, more people were ready to sign Kirk Cousins to a long-term extension than see him moved to the bench. Penix is also at a tricky point in his career for a young quarterback because defenses have enough tape on him to make life harder while he is still continuing to develop and learn the NFL game.
I can hear some readers now: "But, Will! He played nearly 50 games in college. Surely he's got more than enough experience??"
That's a valid point and worth pointing out, but the NFL game is a different animal altogether. If college starts were all that mattered for pro success, players like Case Keenum and Kellen Moore would have been household names. But those starts do matter to some degree, and it's partially why I'd urge patience with Penix. (The other reason is the bazooka attached to his left shoulder.) The foundation is there, and he's been able to help Atlanta win games even without his best stuff.
I do believe more time on the field in games will help Penix more than anything else, but that's not to let him off the hook. He's gone cold at inopportune times and needs to improve on throws to the middle of the field. I agree that teams are going to sell out to stop Bijan, and the Falcons have two top-10 scoring offenses on tap in their next three games.
While I think the defense is good enough to keep Atlanta in these games like it has been, the best way for the Falcons to keep up is for Penix to get things going. I have a feeling he might do that this weekend against Miami.
Willis W. from Montgomery, Ala.
"Good morning, it could just be me and my undying desire to see my Falcons make serious bids for the playoffs and beyond, however does it seem as though our O-Line is struggling a little bit now. There was an impressive power to the O-Line for the first two games, but there seems to be something off. Like I said, could just be me, what are your thoughts"
I get where you're coming from after Sunday night's game against San Francisco, Willis, but I feel like the offensive line has been pretty solid for most of the season. It's worth remembering that Jake Matthews left just before halftime against Buffalo with an ankle injury that he then played through against the 49ers. Credit the toughness, but it's also fair to assume that injury impacted him at times.
There are a few Next Gen Stats that you might find interesting, though, and may help explain what your eyes are telling you. Against the 49ers, Atlanta averaged minus-0.1 yards before contact per carry on designed runs. Meaning the Falcons' backs were hit in the backfield often. That was also true against Washington, when Atlanta averaged minus-0.9 yards before contact.
But those are the worst performances for Atlanta's offense in that regard, and I still consider this group to be one of the best in the league for running the football. Here's another stat for you: The Falcons have allowed the fifth-lowest sack rate and the eighth-lowest pressure rate this season.
And don't forget, they've done all of this without Kaleb McGary, and they'll also get some help in the near future with Storm Norton looking like he’s close to coming off injured reserve. With the offense not yet performing the way many expected, it's totally natural to look everywhere for potential problems. I just don't think the offensive line has been one.
