FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Why couldn't the Falcons consistently run the ball Sunday afternoon in the team's loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Well, like most things in this league, it wasn't a one-size-fits-all answer. There were trends, of course, and we will get into those.
"We didn't play particularly well up front and that showed up in the run game," head coach Raheem Morris said, adding that the Falcons' game plan wasn't to throw the ball 42 times against Tampa Bay.
However, the main takeaways involve the fact that the Falcons didn't dominate the line of scrimmage.
"We didn't play particularly well up front and that showed up in the run game," head coach Raheem Morris said, adding that the Falcons' game plan wasn't to throw the ball 42 times against Tampa Bay.
Coupled with that was the notion Atlanta attempted some new wrinkles in the run game that just didn't put up big rushing numbers consistently.
And let's be honest, too: The fact Tampa Bay had a good game plan to stop the run made Sunday a slog for the Falcons' notoriously promising ground game. Sometimes its as simple as that. In this case, you have to give credit to a defense and coordinator who came in with a plan to stop the run, knew their opponent's tells and executed a plan that ultimately helped win them the game.
That is essentially what happened Sunday.
So, let's start there. The Buccaneers' inside linebackers — and on a couple plays, safeties — were constantly shading to the side of the protection that featured Charlie Woener. Regardless of implementing motion, or just having Woerner staying put on either side of the line didn't really matter. The Bucs, particularly Sirvocea Dennis, was going where Woerner took him. And in the case of the Falcons' run plan, that's often with Woerner as the lead blocker for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Too often, Tampa Bay sniffed out the plan well before the ball was even snapped. Now, this isn't at all uncommon. Teams do this every week. But the Falcons didn't really seem to counteract this plan except for one specific time.
In the third quarter with Atlanta starting its drive on their own 34-yard line, the Falcons lined Woerner and Pitts to the right of right tackle Elijah Wilkinson. At the snap, the Falcons implemented a stretch zone run to the left, away from Woerner. It was Robinson's best run of the day, picking up 11 yards and a first down. However, that good feeling didn't last long. Drake London was called for a holding penalty and the gain was wiped clean.
By the fourth quarter, the Bucs were sniffing out run lanes left and right. Case in point, the Falcons' first-and-goal play from the half-yard line in the fourth quarter. It's a play that lost 3 yards on a stretch run to the left with Robinson.
As Woerner motioned left, the inside linebackers and safeties moved with him while outside linebacker Yaya Diaby eyed Woerner as he shuffled his feet to the boundary prior to the ball being snapped. With the Bucs fully aware of what Atlanta was doing, what transpired thereafter was simple math: Atlanta had three blockers for four Tampa Bay defenders.
It wasn't all about the Bucs sniffing out the Falcons' intended run lanes Sunday, though. The Falcons attempted to implement a couple new wrinkles into the run game that didn't really pan out like they'd hoped.
For starters, they ran behind left guard Matthew Bergeron and left tackle Jake Matthews a lot. At a clip significantly more noticeable and less productive than they did last year, when they predominantly ran to the right with Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. The absence of McGary may have played into this specific decision, with the Falcons not wanting to test Wilkinson too soon. This showed up in run play design and execution.
In total, Atlanta ran the ball outside the tackles eight total times. The breakdown in location is significant, though. They only ran outside Wilkinson once compared to Matthews seven times, according to StatsPerform.
But Matthews struggled at times to put a body on — what is to be assumed — was his assignment. There were also a couple instances where a double team with Matthews and Bergeron had one or the other not pulling off quick enough to allow Dennis or Deaby to run free at Robinson or Allgeier. Like on this play below on first-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 24-yard line in the fourth quarter. This was a play for no gain.
The Falcons implemented a bit more gap style than their normal bread and butter stretch-zone play. They particularly did so with Robinson; of his 12 designed runs, only three or four (depending if you count the above play where London was called for a hold) were obvious stretch runs to the boundary. Meanwhile, Allgeier had a couple more opportunities, with a pair of stretch plays coming early in the first quarter and 5 yards gained on each. This gap-style attack with Robinson could have had an effect on the Falcons' inability to pick up bigger runs Sunday.
Throughout his career, Robinson has averaged 2.9 yards before contact on designed runs. On Sunday, that number dropped to 0.42. Meanwhile, Allgeier (who had a few more outside zone opportunities) had nearly one yard more leeway before initial contact (1.3 yard average). That is still off Allgeier's career average (2.08) but it's notable nonetheless considering how the Falcons were using Robinson in the run game and what they were trying to do keeping things inside the tackle.
These low averages are obviously because Tampa Bay was solid in clogging the gaps. More often than not, Robinson or Allgeier were met in the gap by multiple Tampa Bay defenders. Whereas, the Falcons have found success making people miss in space, there was little space in the gap for someone as elusive as Robinson to make work. Perhaps giving Robinson a couple more opportunities to take a handoff towards the sideline and Allgeier a chance to take on some defenders in the gap makes more sense moving forward.
On Sunday, the Falcons used a rush lane inside the tackle but to the left or right of a guard 14 times. That's at a clip of 63%. What's interesting about this number is its very different from the Falcons' go-to run designs last year, when Atlanta was running the ball outside the tackles at an average of 68%, according to Next Gen Stats.
And that is a big piece of all of this: It is obvious the Falcons need a bit more out of their run game. They tried some things against the Buccaneers that didn't really provide the dividends they were wanting. And when they didn't mix things up with Woerner, their go-to plays were found out by a Tampa Bay team that learned from their mistakes in 2024.
The Falcons don't have to go back to the drawing board when it comes to the run game. But they do have some tweaks to fix. Finding the right balance for Robinson's designed runs, figuring out how to rely on running it to the right without McGary and how to misdirect with Woerner are all key places to start.
