FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons have yet to even begin their mandatory minicamp, which starts on Tuesday, so it's clearly far too early to start thinking about the 2025 fantasy football season, right?
Wrong.
For those among us always looking to gain any small edge that will help win your league, the work never ends. Much like the real world, one of the best paths to fantasy success lies in accruing value in the draft. For example, drafting a quarterback in the eighth round who finishes the season as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback likely means you're at least in the playoffs.
In a recent article for The Athletic, Jake Clely tried to identify the quarterbacks he felt were in line for a potential breakout fantasy season. It's a list filled with the game's top young passers, and that includes Michael Penix Jr.
"Penix is a great passer with similarities to Matthew Stafford, and he shows nice ability with downfield throws," Clely writes. "Albeit in a limited sample, Penix was second in AirYD/ATT at 10.2 (behind only Anthony Richardson at 12.2) and fourth in yards per completion at 12.7. Even more impressive is Penix's YD/Comp jumped to a league-high 17.3 when under pressure. Clearly, he has a strong rapport with Drake London, targeting him 39.8% of the time in three starts, with just 15.4 OFFTGT% and a production line of 22-352-2 on the 39 targets to London. Also, Bijan Robinson is a legit threat in the passing game."
Not to underestimate any reader's football knowledge, but there are a few abbreviations in there from Clely that may need some defining.
The first — air yards per attempt (AirYD/ATT) — is exactly what it sounds like: The number of total yards Penix's passes traveled in the air divided by the number of attempts he had. At 10.2 air yards per attempt, Penix showed a propensity to do the same thing in the NFL that he did in college: chuck the ball downfield.
The second — off-target percentage (OFFTGT%) — are the percentage of passes thrown towards a receiver that were deemed to be off-target. In this case, Clely uses it to illustrate the rapport Penix has built with London and the accuracy he has in delivering him the ball.
An important asterisk for that off-target percentage is the relative little time Penix has spent working with the Falcons' top weapons. As the team's No. 2 quarterback for much of the season, Penix did not throw to players like London or Robinson prior to assuming the starting role. With a full offseason of work, the chemistry between Penix and his pass catchers should increase.
"The amount of reps that they'll get offseason, OTAs, training camp, whether they're working out on their own, it's just going to be huge for this offense taking the next step," Falcons pass game coordinator T.J. Yates said.
Penix's tendency to air it out, coupled with the weapons at his disposal are enough to make him an enticing fantasy option. However, there are two more elements that could really boost him into QB1 territory for your fantasy team in 2025.
Averaging 17.3 yards per completion on dropbacks where he faced pressure is no small feat by Penix, and it can be an early indicator of future success. The sample size is limited, so that's worth bearing in mind, but here are the yards per completion when under pressure from some other notable quarterbacks in their rookie seasons, according to TruMedia.
- 21.9 - Josh Allen (2018)
- 17.3 – Michael Penix Jr. (2024)
- 16 – Brock Purdy (2022)
- 16 – Anthony Richardson (2023)
- 15.9 – Baker Mayfield (2018)
- 15.4 – C.J. Stroud (2023)
- 14.8 – Jalen Hurts (2020)
- 14.7 – Lamar Jackson (2018)
Notably, five of the players on that list (Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Mayfield and Purdy) went on to finish among the top six fantasy quarterbacks at some point over the last five seasons. A good indicator for Penix, although it should be mentioned again that he has a smaller sample size.
The final element that could make Penix a top fantasy quarterback option is his mobility. Although the Falcons prefer Penix to primarily play from the pocket, he has the functional athleticism to make defenses pay if he has the space to run.
In just his third start, he deftly broke contain against the Panthers before racing to the left-front pylon for a 5-yard touchdown. It's not the 45-yard scramble we might routinely see from Lamar Jackson, but it could mean the difference in a close matchup.
It's clear why the Falcons are invested in Penix being their quarterback of the future. Fantasy football players can take a little more of a "wait-and-see" approach, given some of the established options out there, but Penix has the upside and the surrounding cast to emerge as a QB1 in fantasy very soon.
