The Falcons have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Head coach Arthur Smith pointed that out on Sunday night, and he's right.
There's still a chance, but it's ever-so-slim after a 31-13 loss to the 49ers on Sunday at Levi's Stadium.
The folks at fivethirtyeight.com suggest the Falcons now have a two percent chance of making the postseason, at the time of this story's publication. A win over the 49ers would've put them at 42. It would've launched them into the thick of things, occupying the NFC's No. 6 seed, with a real shot to extend the season.
Instead, a postseason berth now seems unrealistic. Not impossible, mind you. And that's how the Falcons are choosing to look at it.
Sunday's loss was a significant setback. They refuse to say, however, that postseason hopes are dead and buried.
They're going to keep pushing, keep fighting for their ultimate goals. That's right on brand for a bunch of scrappers who never say die, even when things don't go right.
"We're going to compete every game," Smith said in his postgame press conference. "We just keep swinging. A lot of crazy things have happened in the NFL. We'll try to win the next one, to get one at home. We'll keep chipping away and see what happens. There are a lot of things that – what it looks like today is not how it's going to look after Week 18.
"You all have covered this league a long time. It usually comes down to the last week of the season. You just want to have a mathematical chance. Crazier things have happened."
A series of crazy things would have to happen for the Falcons to get back in this thing. They'll need to win out and get really lucky, like find a four-leaf clover while holding a winning lottery ticket kind of lucky. After all, they've lost head-to-head tiebreakers to San Francisco, Philadelphia and Washington.
There's no doubting the Falcons are in a bad spot. Even a wide-eyed optimist would have to concede that.
"The mood is sour right now," safety Duron Harmon said. "I'm not going to lie. We let one get away. We didn't play the way we needed to play."
They need to play more like they did last week, when they were running the ball well and playing good defense on vital downs. They also had to maximize opportunities and avoid critical mistakes. They made too many with the worst offenses in the biggest moments. The Falcons got inside the San Francisco 10-yard line three times. They came away with zero points.
Smith said that was the difference in the game. Again, he's dead right.
"When you play a good football team in an important game, you have to find ways to score," quarterback Matt Ryan said. "You have to take advantage of those opportunities. We have to be better at that moving forward."
The Falcons will still use playoff possibilities as fuel until the math turns improbable to impossible, but fan focus should shift a bit. Eyes should home on areas of needed improvement, if the Falcons can make significant strides before the season ends. That goes for the group and for individuals, many of whom are in a contract year or fighting for positioning on next year's depth chart.
If they do those things, they're capable of going on a winning streak required to stand a puncher's chance. Only then should they look back at the playoff picture to see if enough went right for consideration.
Get an inside look at the matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers during Week 15.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 reacts after a long reception during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers players pray together after their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons place kicker Younghoe Koo #7 and San Francisco 49ers kicker Robbie Gould #9 talk after their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo #10 talk after their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan talk after their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Ta'Quon Graham #95 and San Francisco 49ers defensive end Charles Omenihu #92 swap jerseys after their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Christian Blake #13 attempts to catch a pass during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 catches a pass during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs after catching a pass during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 rushes during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs after catching a pass during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs after catching a pass during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 catches a pass during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Frank Darby #88 is seen prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis #28 rushes during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is seen on the sideline during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus #17 reacts after catching a pass during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons place kicker Younghoe Koo #7 celebrates with teammates after kicking a field goal during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 celebrates after catching a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a pass during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus #17 catches a pass during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus #17 catches a pass during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons punter Thomas Morstead #19 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
An Atlanta Falcons fan is seen in attendance during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis #28 rushes during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Steven Means #55 is seen prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus #17 runs after catching a pass during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 prepares to take a snap during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 prepares to take a snap during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 attempts to catch a pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 celebrates after catching a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Lee Smith #85 attempts to catch a pass in the end zone during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 calls a timeout during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 prepares to take a snap during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 calls a play in the huddle during the first quarter of a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 catches a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 looks to pass during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis #28 rushes during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Avery Williams #35 returns a punt during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 runs after catching a pass during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #14 runs after catching a pass during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis #28 rushes during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons offensive tackle Kaleb McGary #76 and guard Chris Lindstrom #63 block during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Qadree Ollison #30 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson #84 celebrates with teammates after a carry during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs after catching a pass during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs after catching a pass during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 prepares to take a snap during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson #84 celebrates with teammates after a carry during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foyesade Oluokun #54 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Feleipe Franks #15 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Christian Blake #13 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Shawn Williams #36 is seen on the field prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
A view of the cleats of Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Anthony Rush #94 prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons fullback Keith Smith #40 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Christian Blake #13 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Michael Urakami/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 and San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle #85 talk prior to their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Emmanuel Ellerbee #52 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Emmanuel Ellerbee #52 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 talks with San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle #85 prior to their game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, December 19, 2021. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Atlanta Falcons)
"'So you're saying there's a chance? 'Isn't that the old line?" Ryan said, referring to the classic "Dumb and Dumber" quote. "I've seen crazy things happen in this league. We've got to hold up our end of the bargain, and that starts next week. …We need to find a way to win next Sunday, keep that narrow focus and see what happens."
What happened in the Bay Area was a real blow. The Falcons knew what was at stake. They didn't shy from the fact this was a massive contest and coming out on the wrong end of it would have major repercussions. The Falcons raised the game's stakes with solid play entering it, including a vital victory in Carolina.
The Falcons took a step back against the 49ers – they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record – but don't believe it will hinder progress previously made.
"It still feels like we're moving in the right direction, but this stings," Harmon said. "When you put everything you have into it and you feel confident in the game plan and feel confident about competing with your teammates, but today just wasn't our day. As much as we wanted it to be our day, it just wasn't."
Falcons Final Whistle | A Postgame Podcast
Break down the hottest topics surrounding the Atlanta Falcons and how they can impact the team's success with Falcons Insiders Scott Bair, Tori McElhaney and Terrin Waack. Like and subscribe to join us for the lively debate on Falcons Final Whistle.
Welcome to Falcons Final Whistle – an Atlanta Falcons football postgame podcast during the season that shifts gears in the offseason to answer a pressing question about the team's future each week through free agency, the NFL Draft and the offseason program.
